Analysis by Handel Jones, CEO of IBS, makes predictions by device type of when that imbalance will be overcome and the point at which each sub-market will be in oversupply.
In general capacity shortages are expected to continue for almost all products for the rest of 2021 but with excess capacity arriving in 2H22 or in one case as late as 4Q23. From a buyers perspective the situation should start to improve through 2023, as different product types come back into balance, and then go into over-supply.
The shortages are likely to be most long-lived for power transistors and battery management system ICs. It is only the memory sector that the situation is starting to stabilize. For both NAND flash and DRAM, IBS expects the shortage will be overcome in either 4Q21 or 1Q22 and an oversupply causing a drop in pricing as soon as 2Q22 or 3Q22.
Supply and demand imbalance by semiconductor types: Source: International Business Strategies Inc.
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While wafer fab capacity is being put in place to address shortages in microprocessors and microcontrollers, GPUs and other digital semiconductors if may take 12 to 18 months to see that production to manifest as oversupply. But in the analog and power sectors, the leading companies are being more conservative. These companies include Analog Devices, Cree, Infineon, NXP, On Semi, Rohm, STMicroelectronics and Texas Instruments.
TI is acquiring the Lehi (Utah) wafer fab of Micron Technology to obtain access to additional 300mm capacity, while ADI obtains most of its wafers from foundry vendors. One reason for the high demand for power-related semiconductors is the growth of the electric vehicle and other battery-powered devices.
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