While the direct impact of workplace closures is not expected to last too long the indirect economic impact of suppressed demand could occupy the first half of 2020, according to market research firm TrendForce.
The expected smartphone rebound year – due to 5G uptake – is not now expected in 2020 but more likely split between the 2H20 and 1H21. TrendFocus has reduced its estimate for smartphone shipments in the 1Q20 from the previously given 307 million to 275 million. This reduction of 10.4 percent will result in a first quarter down 12.1 percent compared with 1Q19.
The upswing will come in the 2H20 with the release of 5G and multicamera phones. TrendForce has altered its full year forecast from 1.41 billion units to 1.35 billion units, a drop of 4.3 percent. If the lower figure reflects a decline of 3.5 percent year-on-year.
Consumer electronics end-product shipment forecast (millions of units) for 1Q20. Source: TrendForce
The notebook computer market will be similarly affected, TrendFocus said. The firm has almost halved its estimate of notebook shipments in February; from 10.8 million units to 5.7 million. For 1Q20 it has dropped the estimate by 21.4 percent from 35 million to 27.5 million, which would reflect a 26 percent year-on-year decline.
The outbreak’s impact is projected to last between one and three months, and the supply chain will not recover to normal levels until the second half of March at the earliest.
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