Memory prices set to fall due to Intel processor shortage

September 13, 2018 //By Peter Clarke
Memory prices set to fall due to Intel processor shortage
The shortage of Intel processors manufactured on 14nm FinFET will limit the number of notebook computer that can be manufactured and shipped and will, in turn, cause an oversupply in the memory market, according to market research firm Trendforce.

Trendforce has said it has adjusted its forecast for notebook shipments in 2018 downwards because of the shortage of so-called 'Whiskey Lake' processors.

Trendforce went on to say that PC makers have an insufficient supply of both Whiskey Lake and Coffee Lake processors, the latter having been in production for some time, and it reckons notebook production will now fall in 2018 compared with 2017 by 0.2 percent.

Trendforce said it did not know the precise reason for the shortfall but the supply gap has opened up from 5 percent in August to between 5 and 10 percent in September. "There is a possibility that the supply gap may extend to over 10 percent in 4Q18, and the shortage is expected to be resolved rather later in 1H19," Trendforce said.

After DRAM average selling prices (ASPs) had climbed for nine successive quarters it was already thought that the market might be approaching a turning point. However, with an oversupply now being caused by the Intel processor shortfall, Trendforce is predicting DRAM prices will slide with PC DRAM experiencing a larger ASP decline.

In the server market Trendforce states that in the server market a minority of server OEMs are experiencing lead times for deliveries of Purley processors being pushed out. While the shortfall seems less severe both the NAND Flash and DRAM markets are much more vulnerable to the falling demand from the server application than from the PC or notebook application. Therefore, downward corrections of demand for server memory products will cause a steeper drop in quotations of memory products as a whole.

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